It seems that driving instructors are being grouped in with hairdressers when it comes to starting back to work. Early July is the current estimate. The government is wanting to see evidence of no ill-effects of the existing relaxing of lockdown before allowing us to get back in our cars. The relaxing of lockdown comes in line with official news of the UK recession - deep recession. We are talking of certainly the levels experienced in 2008 and all the likelihood of beyond.
Self-employed people will have now received their government handout of 80% of their previous three years average profits - no less than three months worth. How a country is supposed to survive by paying perfectly healthy people to stay indoors, contributing nothing to the GDP is beyond me.
The way I'm tending to think about our current predicament is a bit like the unfolding drama of a mountain hike. Do you know how it goes? You start early in the morning, the weather forecast is good. You are in high spirits; done all your safety checks; the right people know of your whereabouts. You may be in a mixed bunch of ability and experience, but morale is high, and it looks like the start of a beautiful day. If all goes to plan, everyone should be back in the accommodation, drinking wine and chuckling about the day's events by 7 pm.
You are more than halfway there when you begin to notice changing weather patterns. Everyone pauses to discuss options. After considering the remaining trek, the time and morale, it is decided, primarily by the leader to carry on. There were some reservations expressed by a couple of members of the party, but the leader is pretty influential. He often talks unemotionally, basing his views on fact and experience. His conclusion is instead to carry on.
And the party does achieve the goal of reaching the summit. But in doing so, the weather has indeed closed in. What was initially, overcast, grey clouds providing that very fine, spray rain, you know, the 'wet rain', is now constant, energy sapping rain. This has now developed into a drop in temperature and mist, which is rapidly turning into a fog. This wasn't on the forecast!
The party finds itself in the unpleasant predicament of now attempting to descend in pretty nasty conditions and what is more, due to the unreliable forecast, not particularly well-equipped.
Time is ticking by and the party groups together to listen to the words of wisdom from their leader.
"We are in a bit of a pickle here everyone. The good news to tell you is that the weather doesn't appear to be getting any worse. Not for the last 45 minutes in any case. So as long as that remains the case, that is good news. I will keep my eye on that though."
The group members turn to each other and smile. A few strains of anxiety on the brows of a few momentarily lift.
"However, the bad news is that, as you can see, we are deep in the do do. Having managed to get ourselves up here, it now becomes a question of how and when we descend. Now I know that this is far from ideal. There are perils involved for sure. The equipment that we are using and wearing is not suitable for this situation. I can see that for a few of us, this is also going to be not just a physical challenge, but a mental one too. I will also be quite open with you now and say that I am wondering which is the least risky route to get down. It's not just a question of the quickest route; there are certainly other factors involved which affect the risks."
Arguably, the decision to carry on up the mountain was fundamentally an error. With all things considered, a careful assessment would have resulted in an about-turn. About the middle of March, there were all the signs present for the need to increase testing significantly. But Matt Hancock thought better of it, and in a deadly combination also ignored the perils that care homes potentially create. He was in effect, blinded.
We now find ourselves attempting to trek down this mountain, and I don't think it's going to be at all pleasant.
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